📊 Helium Forecaster Honesty Board

Post-hoc Brier grades for publicly logged prob_itm forecasts from the Helium MCP options model. Lower Brier loss is better.

June 2026 expiry — resolved

AAPL NASDAQ close 2026-06-26: $283.78 · forecasts frozen from 2026-05-26 API · graded 2026-07-06
Mean Brier loss: 0.3846
Contractprob_itmRealized ITMBrier
AAPL $310C 2026-06-260.4200.1764
AAPL $295P 2026-06-260.2310.5929

The $310 call was OTM (Helium closer than market-implied ~0.50). The $295 put finished ITM after a sharp drawdown; both market and model underestimated tail risk. n=2 — transparency, not a calibration proof.

Full writeup · Dev.to #10

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